Featherweight3 rounds
Alberto Montes vs Tommy McMillen
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman2026-07-18
Featherweight3 rounds
Alberto Montes
12-1-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Featherweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
32Age28
5' 7"Height6' 0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
69"Reach74"
Tommy McMillen
10-0-0USAFavorite
Tale of the Tape
32
Age
28
5' 7"
Height
6' 0"
69"
Reach
74"
145 lbs
Weight
145 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
USA
92%
Win Rate
100%
67%
Finish Rate
100%
Striking
5.26
Sig. Strikes / Min
9.87
60%
Strike Accuracy
53%
60%
Strike Defense
58%
4.44
Absorbed / Min
5.54
Grappling
0
Takedowns / 15 Min
0
0%
TD Accuracy
0%
77%
TD Defense
83%
6.8
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Tommy McMillen
by Decision
74.9% to win over Alberto Montes · 50.3% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
25.1%(+298)
74.9%(-298)
Alberto MontesTommy McMillen
KO/TKO
33.3%
8.4% / 24.9%
Submission
16.4%
4.1% / 12.3%
Decision
50.3%
12.6% / 37.7%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.23 rounds
Goes the Distance
50%
Ends Inside Distance
50%
Ends by KO/TKO
33%
Ends by Submission
16%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 66%Under 34%
31ppO/U 2.5
Over 57%Under 43%
14ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, or build a custom comparison.