⚡ Model vs Market
UFC Picks
Every priced UFC fight, scored by OctagonIQ's model. Filter by card, win %, method, value, or fighter to find your edge.
Method
Showing 16 of 16 fights across 4 cards · 14 value plays
10 fights9 value plays
- 100%HighPrediction100%Eric Nolan +145by Decision (46% chance of this exact outcome)vs Farman Hasanov · Welterweight⚡ +60.7 Pp Valueon Eric Nolan (+145) — same as the prediction
- 71%HighPrediction71%Jean Matsumoto -155by Decision (71% chance of this exact outcome)vs Bekzat Almakhan · Bantamweight⚡ +12.7 Pp Valueon Jean Matsumoto (-155) — same as the prediction
- 69%HighPrediction69%Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev -550by KO/TKO, Round 1 (34% chance of this exact outcome)vs Julius Walker · Light Heavyweight⚡ +12.1 Pp Valueon Julius Walker (+410) — model rates Walker 31% but market only prices them at 19%
- 68%HighPrediction68%Ikram Aliskerov -305by KO/TKO, Round 1 (48% chance of this exact outcome)vs Brunno Ferreira · Middleweight
- 64%HighMainPrediction64%Manuel Torres -108by Decision (48% chance of this exact outcome)vs Rafael Fiziev · Lightweight⚡ +14.6 Pp Valueon Manuel Torres (-108) — same as the prediction
- 60%LeanPrediction60%Andrey Pulyaev +180by Decision (42% chance of this exact outcome)vs Nursulton Ruziboev · Middleweight⚡ +25.4 Pp Valueon Andrey Pulyaev (+180) — same as the prediction
- 58%LeanPrediction58%Daniil Donchenko -500by Decision (52% chance of this exact outcome)vs Theodor Berggren · Welterweight⚡ +22.2 Pp Valueon Theodor Berggren (+380) — model rates Berggren 42% but market only prices them at 20%
- 55%LeanPrediction55%Michal Oleksiejczuk +114by KO/TKO, Round 1 (41% chance of this exact outcome)vs Abus Magomedov · Middleweight⚡ +10.4 Pp Valueon Michal Oleksiejczuk (+114) — same as the prediction
- 55%LeanPrediction55%Nazim Sadykhov -245by Decision (55% chance of this exact outcome)vs Matheus Camilo · Lightweight⚡ +13.2 Pp Valueon Matheus Camilo (+200) — model rates Camilo 45% but market only prices them at 32%
- 52%Coin FlipPrediction52%Michel Pereira +280by Decision (55% chance of this exact outcome)vs Shara Magomedov · Middleweight⚡ +26.7 Pp Valueon Michel Pereira (+280) — same as the prediction
4 fights3 value plays
- 55%LeanPrediction55%Cory Sandhagen -142by Decision (63% chance of this exact outcome)vs Mario Bautista · Bantamweight
- 55%LeanMainPrediction55%Conor McGregor +190by Decision (47% chance of this exact outcome)vs Max Holloway · Welterweight⚡ +21.9 Pp Valueon Conor McGregor (+190) — same as the prediction
- 52%Coin FlipPrediction52%Lone'er Kavanagh -198by Decision (65% chance of this exact outcome)vs Brandon Royval · Flyweight⚡ +11.5 Pp Valueon Brandon Royval (+164) — model rates Royval 48% but market only prices them at 36%
- 51%Coin FlipPrediction51%Elisha Ellison +1400by KO/TKO, Round 1 (39% chance of this exact outcome)vs Gable Steveson · Heavyweight⚡ +44.3 Pp Valueon Elisha Ellison (+1400) — same as the prediction
1 fight1 value play
1 fight1 value play
Value Side = side the model rates higher than the market line; tagged Underdog Value when that side is the underdog outright. Full breakdown on /methodology. For research and entertainment — we don't accept bets.