Track Record
Every prediction OctagonIQ publishes is logged to the database the moment it appears on /picks, then graded against the actual fight result after the bell. No curation, no cherry-picking. The numbers below reflect every priced UFC fight we've scored under the current model version.
Predictions get logged the moment they appear on /picks, then scored after each fight finishes. Check back after the next UFC card — every prediction we've made will appear here, hits and misses both.
How this page works
Every time the /picks page renders (every 30 minutes), the model's predictions for every priced upcoming fight are written to a predictions table keyed on (fight, model_version). The same row gets refreshed if odds shift, but the prediction history is preserved across model iterations.
After each event, a resolver script grades every settled fight: did the predicted winner win? Was the method right? The round? If we flagged a value bet, did it cash, and what would a flat $100 stake have returned at the line we recorded?
Brier 0.206 and 78.2% win-pick accuracy on /methodology come from backtesting on historical fights with known outcomes, which is useful for calibration but invisible to the public. This page is forward-only: every number reflects predictions we put on the public record before the fight happened.
For research and entertainment. We don't accept bets. Past performance does not guarantee future results.