Heavyweight3 rounds
Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez in Belgrade, Vojvodina, Serbia. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez2026-08-01
Heavyweight3 rounds
Aleksandar Rakic
14-6-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
34Age40
6' 4"Height6' 3"
205 lbsWeight249 lbs
78"Reach78"
Marcin Tybura
27-11-0PolandFavorite
Tale of the Tape
34
Age
40
6' 4"
Height
6' 3"
78"
Reach
78"
205 lbs
Weight
249 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
Poland
70%
Win Rate
71%
71%
Finish Rate
64%
Striking
4.13
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.56
50%
Strike Accuracy
48%
51%
Strike Defense
55%
2.86
Absorbed / Min
3.26
Grappling
0.64
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.3
21%
TD Accuracy
33%
85%
TD Defense
70%
0.1
Submissions / 15 Min
0.1
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Aleksandar Rakic
by Decision
62.0% to win over Marcin Tybura · 42.7% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
62.0%(-163)
38.0%(+163)
Aleksandar RakicMarcin Tybura
KO/TKO
42.6%
26.4% / 16.2%
Submission
14.7%
9.1% / 5.6%
Decision
42.7%
26.5% / 16.2%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.34 rounds
Goes the Distance
43%
Ends Inside Distance
57%
Ends by KO/TKO
43%
Ends by Submission
15%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 76%Under 24%
53ppO/U 2.5
Over 58%Under 42%
16ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez, or build a custom comparison.