Heavyweight3 rounds
Allen Frye Jr. vs Alvin Hines
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman2026-07-18
Heavyweight3 rounds
Allen Frye Jr.
6-1-0Favorite
OctagonIQ
Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
28Age34
6' 5"Height6' 2"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
80"Reach74"
Alvin Hines
7-1-0Underdog
Tale of the Tape
28
Age
34
6' 5"
Height
6' 2"
80"
Reach
74"
265 lbs
Weight
265 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
86%
Win Rate
88%
100%
Finish Rate
83%
Striking
2.2
Sig. Strikes / Min
5.47
38%
Strike Accuracy
31%
36%
Strike Defense
38%
4.27
Absorbed / Min
7.47
Grappling
0
Takedowns / 15 Min
1
0%
TD Accuracy
10%
0%
TD Defense
0%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Allen Frye Jr.
by Decision
73.3% to win over Alvin Hines · 46.3% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
73.3%(-275)
26.7%(+275)
Allen Frye Jr.Alvin Hines
KO/TKO
33.7%
24.7% / 9.0%
Submission
19.9%
14.6% / 5.3%
Decision
46.3%
33.9% / 12.4%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.33 rounds
Goes the Distance
46%
Ends Inside Distance
54%
Ends by KO/TKO
34%
Ends by Submission
20%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 74%Under 26%
49ppO/U 2.5
Over 59%Under 41%
18ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, or build a custom comparison.