Bantamweight3 rounds
Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song in Shanghai, China. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song2026-08-29
Bantamweight3 rounds
Aoriqileng
26-13-0ChinaUnderdog
OctagonIQ
Bantamweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
33Age32
5' 7"Height5' 8"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
69"Reach69"
Kai Asakura
22-6-0JapanFavorite
Tale of the Tape
33
Age
32
5' 7"
Height
5' 8"
69"
Reach
69"
135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
China
Country
Japan
67%
Win Rate
79%
38%
Finish Rate
84%
Striking
4.4
Sig. Strikes / Min
2.53
49%
Strike Accuracy
34%
46%
Strike Defense
52%
5.66
Absorbed / Min
3.34
Grappling
1.11
Takedowns / 15 Min
0
46%
TD Accuracy
0%
59%
TD Defense
50%
0.2
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionCoin Flip
Kai Asakura
by Decision
50.7% to win over Aoriqileng · 48.2% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
49.3%(+103)
50.7%(-103)
AoriqilengKai Asakura
KO/TKO
33.7%
16.6% / 17.1%
Submission
18.1%
8.9% / 9.2%
Decision
48.2%
23.8% / 24.4%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.24 rounds
Goes the Distance
48%
Ends Inside Distance
52%
Ends by KO/TKO
34%
Ends by Submission
18%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 67%Under 33%
35ppO/U 2.5
Over 57%Under 43%
14ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, or build a custom comparison.