Flyweight3 rounds
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres in Baku, Azerbaijan. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres2026-06-27
Flyweight3 rounds
Asu Almabayev
23-3-0KazakhstanFavorite
OctagonIQ
Flyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
32Age35
5' 4"Height5' 9"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
65"Reach70"
Charles Johnson
19-8-0Underdog
Tale of the Tape
32
Age
35
5' 4"
Height
5' 9"
65"
Reach
70"
125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Kazakhstan
Country
N/A
88%
Win Rate
70%
60%
Finish Rate
38%
Striking
2.31
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.77
50%
Strike Accuracy
49%
53%
Strike Defense
55%
1.99
Absorbed / Min
4.02
Grappling
4.46
Takedowns / 15 Min
0.51
42%
TD Accuracy
16%
44%
TD Defense
69%
1.5
Submissions / 15 Min
0.3
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Asu Almabayev
by Decision
61.1% to win over Charles Johnson · 65.0% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
61.1%(-157)
38.9%(+157)
Asu AlmabayevCharles Johnson
KO/TKO
18.0%
11.0% / 7.0%
Submission
17.0%
10.4% / 6.6%
Decision
65.0%
39.7% / 25.3%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.60 rounds
Goes the Distance
65%
Ends Inside Distance
35%
Ends by KO/TKO
18%
Ends by Submission
17%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 86%Under 14%
71ppO/U 2.5
Over 74%Under 26%
49ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, or build a custom comparison.