TODAYUFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovSat, Jul 25, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Full card →Lightweight3 rounds
Axel Sola vs Ismael Bonfim
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov2026-07-25
Lightweight3 rounds
Axel Sola
11-1-1FranceFavorite-200
OctagonIQ
Lightweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
28Age30
6' 2"Height5' 8"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
74"Reach71"
Ismael Bonfim
20-6-0Underdog+166
Tale of the Tape
28
Age
30
6' 2"
Height
5' 8"
74"
Reach
71"
155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
France
Country
N/A
92%
Win Rate
77%
67%
Finish Rate
65%
Striking
4.07
Sig. Strikes / Min
5.51
45%
Strike Accuracy
54%
61%
Strike Defense
65%
5.29
Absorbed / Min
3.71
Grappling
2.22
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.06
36%
TD Accuracy
33%
0%
TD Defense
76%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Axel Sola
by Decision
61.1% to win over Ismael Bonfim · 57.4% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
61.1%(-157)
38.9%(+157)
Axel SolaIsmael Bonfim
KO/TKO
26.3%
16.1% / 10.2%
Submission
16.4%
10.0% / 6.4%
Decision
57.4%
35.1% / 22.3%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.37 rounds
Goes the Distance
57%
Ends Inside Distance
43%
Ends by KO/TKO
26%
Ends by Submission
16%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 73%Under 28%
45ppO/U 2.5
Over 64%Under 36%
28ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
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