Flyweight3 rounds
Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh
Fight preview for UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 22026-07-11
Flyweight3 rounds
Brandon Royval
17-9-0Underdog+164
OctagonIQ
Flyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
33Age27
5' 9"Height5' 6"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
68"Reach67"
Lone'er Kavanagh
10-1-0Favorite-198
Tale of the Tape
33
Age
27
5' 9"
Height
5' 6"
68"
Reach
67"
125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
65%
Win Rate
91%
73%
Finish Rate
44%
Striking
5.54
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.13
41%
Strike Accuracy
48%
43%
Strike Defense
56%
4.25
Absorbed / Min
3.49
Grappling
0.65
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.12
75%
TD Accuracy
45%
45%
TD Defense
94%
1.1
Submissions / 15 Min
0.2
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionCoin Flip
Lone'er Kavanagh
by Decision
52.1% to win over Brandon Royval · 65.2% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
⚡ Strong ValueOctagonIQ Model vs MarketUnderdog Value
Model gives Brandon Royval 47.9% to win; market implies 36.3%. Even though the model still has Brandon Royval as the underdog outright, the line over-prices Lone'er Kavanagh — making Brandon Royval the +EV side at +164 or better.
47.9%(+109)
52.1%(-109)
Brandon RoyvalLone'er Kavanagh
KO/TKO
15.2%
7.3% / 7.9%
Submission
19.6%
9.4% / 10.2%
Decision
65.2%
31.2% / 34.0%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.58 rounds
Goes the Distance
65%
Ends Inside Distance
35%
Ends by KO/TKO
15%
Ends by Submission
20%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 84%Under 16%
69ppO/U 2.5
Over 74%Under 26%
48ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, or build a custom comparison.