Light Heavyweight3 rounds
Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld2026-08-08
Light Heavyweight3 rounds
Bruno Lopes
14-3-0BrazilUnderdog
OctagonIQ
Light Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
33Age29
6' 2"Height6' 2"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
74"Reach74"
D
Diyar Nurgozhay
11-2-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
33
Age
29
6' 2"
Height
6' 2"
74"
Reach
74"
205 lbs
Weight
205 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Brazil
Country
N/A
82%
Win Rate
85%
75%
Finish Rate
70%
Striking
2.88
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.52
43%
Strike Accuracy
59%
54%
Strike Defense
61%
4.21
Absorbed / Min
2.81
Grappling
1.93
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.37
21%
TD Accuracy
75%
100%
TD Defense
80%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionLean
Diyar Nurgozhay
by Decision
58.8% to win over Bruno Lopes · 40.0% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
41.2%(+143)
58.8%(-143)
Bruno LopesDiyar Nurgozhay
KO/TKO
32.8%
13.5% / 19.3%
Submission
27.2%
11.2% / 16.0%
Decision
40.0%
16.5% / 23.5%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.25 rounds
Goes the Distance
40%
Ends Inside Distance
60%
Ends by KO/TKO
33%
Ends by Submission
27%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 71%Under 29%
41ppO/U 2.5
Over 54%Under 46%
8ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld, or build a custom comparison.