Women's Strawweight3 rounds
Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues in Sacramento, California, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues2026-08-22
Women's Strawweight3 rounds
C
Carli Judice
6-2-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Women's Strawweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
27Age29
5' 7"Height5' 6"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
68"Reach68"
J
Jeisla Chaves
8-0-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
27
Age
29
5' 7"
Height
5' 6"
68"
Reach
68"
125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
75%
Win Rate
100%
80%
Finish Rate
57%
Striking
9.32
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.97
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
57%
Strike Defense
53%
6.62
Absorbed / Min
4.2
Grappling
0.52
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.5
25%
TD Accuracy
37%
80%
TD Defense
62%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0.5
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Carli Judice
by Decision
60.0% to win over Jeisla Chaves · 57.1% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
60.0%(-150)
40.0%(+150)
Carli JudiceJeisla Chaves
KO/TKO
21.0%
12.6% / 8.4%
Submission
22.0%
13.2% / 8.8%
Decision
57.1%
34.3% / 22.8%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.50 rounds
Goes the Distance
57%
Ends Inside Distance
43%
Ends by KO/TKO
21%
Ends by Submission
22%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 82%Under 18%
64ppO/U 2.5
Over 68%Under 32%
37ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, or build a custom comparison.