Middleweight3 rounds
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night2026-07-18
Middleweight3 rounds
Christian Leroy Duncan
14-2-0EnglandFavorite
OctagonIQ
Middleweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
30Age42
6' 2"Height5' 11"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
79"Reach77"
Jared Cannonier
18-9-0Underdog
Tale of the Tape
30
Age
42
6' 2"
Height
5' 11"
79"
Reach
77"
185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs
Switch
Stance
Switch
England
Country
N/A
88%
Win Rate
67%
83%
Finish Rate
72%
Striking
4.43
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.42
57%
Strike Accuracy
49%
52%
Strike Defense
56%
2.59
Absorbed / Min
4.35
Grappling
0.33
Takedowns / 15 Min
0.54
16%
TD Accuracy
40%
63%
TD Defense
64%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Christian Leroy Duncan
by KO/TKO, Round 1
71.7% to win over Jared Cannonier · 47.8% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
71.7%(-253)
28.3%(+253)
Christian Leroy DuncanJared Cannonier
KO/TKO
47.8%
34.3% / 13.5%
Submission
11.8%
8.5% / 3.3%
Decision
40.3%
28.9% / 11.4%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.34 rounds
Goes the Distance
40%
Ends Inside Distance
60%
Ends by KO/TKO
48%
Ends by Submission
12%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 77%Under 23%
54ppO/U 2.5
Over 57%Under 43%
14ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night, or build a custom comparison.