Bantamweight3 rounds
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
Fight preview for UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 22026-07-11
Bantamweight3 rounds
Cory Sandhagen
18-6-0Favorite-148
OctagonIQ
Bantamweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
34Age32
5' 11"Height5' 9"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
70"Reach69"
Mario Bautista
17-3-0Underdog+124
Tale of the Tape
34
Age
32
5' 11"
Height
5' 9"
70"
Reach
69"
135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs
Switch
Stance
Switch
N/A
Country
N/A
75%
Win Rate
85%
61%
Finish Rate
59%
Striking
4.86
Sig. Strikes / Min
5.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
48%
56%
Strike Defense
54%
3.47
Absorbed / Min
3.98
Grappling
1.15
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.91
34%
TD Accuracy
38%
56%
TD Defense
55%
0.2
Submissions / 15 Min
0.8
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionLean
Cory Sandhagen
by Decision
55.1% to win over Mario Bautista · 63.2% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
55.1%(-123)
44.9%(+123)
Cory SandhagenMario Bautista
KO/TKO
19.1%
10.5% / 8.6%
Submission
17.6%
9.7% / 7.9%
Decision
63.2%
34.8% / 28.4%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.61 rounds
Goes the Distance
63%
Ends Inside Distance
37%
Ends by KO/TKO
19%
Ends by Submission
18%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 87%Under 13%
74ppO/U 2.5
Over 74%Under 26%
48ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, or build a custom comparison.