JUL 25UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree JrSat, Jul 25, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Full card →Bantamweight3 rounds
David Martinez vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr2026-07-25
Bantamweight3 rounds
David Martinez
14-1-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Bantamweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
27Age30
5' 5"Height5' 8"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
67"Reach69"
Umar Nurmagomedov
20-1-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
27
Age
30
5' 5"
Height
5' 8"
67"
Reach
69"
135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
93%
Win Rate
95%
75%
Finish Rate
47%
Striking
4.82
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.86
46%
Strike Accuracy
56%
69%
Strike Defense
61%
2.9
Absorbed / Min
1.86
Grappling
0.6
Takedowns / 15 Min
4.03
25%
TD Accuracy
46%
100%
TD Defense
79%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0.2
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Umar Nurmagomedov
by Decision
65.0% to win over David Martinez · 67.2% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
35.0%(+186)
65.0%(-186)
David MartinezUmar Nurmagomedov
KO/TKO
20.8%
7.3% / 13.5%
Submission
12.0%
4.2% / 7.8%
Decision
67.2%
23.5% / 43.7%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.65 rounds
Goes the Distance
67%
Ends Inside Distance
33%
Ends by KO/TKO
21%
Ends by Submission
12%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 88%Under 12%
76ppO/U 2.5
Over 77%Under 23%
53ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
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