JUL 18UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. UsmanSat, Jul 18, 2026 · Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA
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Main EventMiddleweight5 rounds

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman

Main event preview for UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.

IQ Score

Dricus Du Plessis
75
Contender
Kamaru Usman
70
Gatekeeper
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman2026-07-18
Main EventMiddleweight5 rounds
Dricus Du Plessis — UFC fighter portrait
Dricus Du Plessis
23-3-0South AfricaFavorite-340
OctagonIQ
Middleweight
Main Event Bout · 5 Rounds
32Age39
6' 1"Height6' 0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
76"Reach76"
Kamaru Usman — UFC fighter portrait
Kamaru Usman
21-4-0NigeriaUnderdog+270

Tale of the Tape

32
Age
39
6' 1"
Height
6' 0"
76"
Reach
76"
185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs
Switch
Stance
Switch
South Africa
Country
Nigeria
88%
Win Rate
84%
87%
Finish Rate
41%

Striking

5.18
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.16
48%
Strike Accuracy
51%
52%
Strike Defense
55%
4.33
Absorbed / Min
2.67

Grappling

2.22
Takedowns / 15 Min
2.79
51%
TD Accuracy
44%
34%
TD Defense
89%
0.7
Submissions / 15 Min
0.1
0

Simulation Prediction

OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionLean
Dricus Du Plessis
by Decision
58.1% to win over Kamaru Usman · 51.3% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
⚡ Elite ValueOctagonIQ Model vs MarketUnderdog Value
Value Side
Kamaru Usman
over Dricus Du Plessis
+16.0
Pp Value
Market Price
+270
Model fair price: +139
Model gives Kamaru Usman 41.9% to win; market implies 25.9%. Even though the model still has Kamaru Usman as the underdog outright, the line over-prices Dricus Du Plessis — making Kamaru Usman the +EV side at +270 or better.
58.1%(-139)
41.9%(+139)
Dricus Du PlessisKamaru Usman
KO/TKO
40.2%
23.4% / 16.8%
Submission
8.5%
4.9% / 3.6%
Decision
51.3%
29.8% / 21.5%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 3.77 rounds
Goes the Distance
51%
Ends Inside Distance
49%
Ends by KO/TKO
40%
Ends by Submission
9%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 87%Under 13%
74pp
O/U 2.5
Over 73%Under 27%
45pp
O/U 3.5
Over 62%Under 38%
24pp
O/U 4.5
Over 55%Under 45%
10pp
Multi-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.

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