Middleweight3 rounds
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik
Fight preview for UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry2026-08-15
Middleweight3 rounds
Dustin Stoltzfus
16-8-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Middleweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
34Age28
6' 0"Height6' 2"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
75"Reach80"
Mansur Abdul-Malik
9-1-1USAFavorite
Tale of the Tape
34
Age
28
6' 0"
Height
6' 2"
75"
Reach
80"
185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
USA
67%
Win Rate
90%
57%
Finish Rate
100%
Striking
3.3
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.28
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
47%
Strike Defense
46%
3.23
Absorbed / Min
4.49
Grappling
2.08
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.65
37%
TD Accuracy
41%
46%
TD Defense
83%
1.1
Submissions / 15 Min
0.3
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Mansur Abdul-Malik
by KO/TKO, Round 1
79.2% to win over Dustin Stoltzfus · 48.1% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
20.8%(+381)
79.2%(-381)
Dustin StoltzfusMansur Abdul-Malik
KO/TKO
48.1%
10.0% / 38.1%
Submission
21.4%
4.5% / 16.9%
Decision
30.4%
6.3% / 24.1%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.01 rounds
Goes the Distance
30%
Ends Inside Distance
70%
Ends by KO/TKO
48%
Ends by Submission
21%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 58%Under 42%
16ppO/U 2.5
Over 43%Under 57%
-14ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, or build a custom comparison.