Lightweight3 rounds
Gauge Young vs Kody Steele
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues in Sacramento, California, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues2026-08-22
Lightweight3 rounds
Gauge Young
11-3-0Favorite
OctagonIQ
Lightweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
25Age31
5' 9"Height5' 9"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
70"Reach71"
Kody Steele
8-1-0Underdog
Tale of the Tape
25
Age
31
5' 9"
Height
5' 9"
70"
Reach
71"
155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
79%
Win Rate
89%
64%
Finish Rate
75%
Striking
6.32
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.85
52%
Strike Accuracy
32%
49%
Strike Defense
52%
5.12
Absorbed / Min
6.2
Grappling
0.75
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.07
30%
TD Accuracy
25%
76%
TD Defense
100%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0.5
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionLean
Gauge Young
by Decision
59.1% to win over Kody Steele · 56.1% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
59.1%(-144)
40.9%(+144)
Gauge YoungKody Steele
KO/TKO
19.1%
11.3% / 7.8%
Submission
24.8%
14.7% / 10.1%
Decision
56.1%
33.2% / 22.9%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.46 rounds
Goes the Distance
56%
Ends Inside Distance
44%
Ends by KO/TKO
19%
Ends by Submission
25%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 79%Under 21%
58ppO/U 2.5
Over 67%Under 34%
33ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, or build a custom comparison.