AUG 15UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado GarrySat, Aug 15, 2026 · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
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Title FightWomen's Strawweight5 rounds

Gillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern

Title fight preview for UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.

IQ Score

Gillian Robertson
70
Gatekeeper
Mackenzie Dern
63
Gatekeeper
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry2026-08-15
Women's Strawweight5 rounds
Gillian Robertson — UFC fighter portrait
Gillian Robertson
17-8-0Underdog+150
OctagonIQ
Women's Strawweight
Title Bout · 5 Rounds
31Age33
5' 5"Height5' 4"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
63"Reach63"
Mackenzie Dern — UFC fighter portrait
Mackenzie Dern
16-5-0Favorite-180

Tale of the Tape

31
Age
33
5' 5"
Height
5' 4"
63"
Reach
63"
115 lbs
Weight
115 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
68%
Win Rate
76%
69%
Finish Rate
43%

Striking

2.71
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.47
48%
Strike Accuracy
41%
56%
Strike Defense
51%
2.86
Absorbed / Min
3.93

Grappling

2.76
Takedowns / 15 Min
0.93
40%
TD Accuracy
18%
38%
TD Defense
37%
0.9
Submissions / 15 Min
1.1
0

Simulation Prediction

OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionCoin Flip
Mackenzie Dern
by Decision
52.1% to win over Gillian Robertson · 66.4% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
⚡ Value DetectedOctagonIQ Model vs MarketUnderdog Value
Value Side
Gillian Robertson
over Mackenzie Dern
+9.5
Pp Value
Market Price
+150
Model fair price: +109
Model gives Gillian Robertson 47.9% to win; market implies 38.4%. Even though the model still has Gillian Robertson as the underdog outright, the line over-prices Mackenzie Dern — making Gillian Robertson the +EV side at +150 or better.
47.9%(+109)
52.1%(-109)
Gillian RobertsonMackenzie Dern
KO/TKO
9.6%
4.6% / 5.0%
Submission
24.0%
11.5% / 12.5%
Decision
66.4%
31.8% / 34.6%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 4.06 rounds
Goes the Distance
66%
Ends Inside Distance
34%
Ends by KO/TKO
10%
Ends by Submission
24%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 87%Under 13%
73pp
O/U 2.5
Over 79%Under 21%
57pp
O/U 3.5
Over 73%Under 28%
45pp
O/U 4.5
Over 68%Under 32%
37pp
Multi-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.

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