Heavyweight3 rounds
Guilherme Pat vs Steven Asplund
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld2026-08-08
Heavyweight3 rounds
Guilherme Pat
6-1-0BrazilFavorite
OctagonIQ
Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
32Age28
6' 6"Height6' 5"
265 lbsWeight260 lbs
81"Reach78"
S
Steven Asplund
7-2-0Underdog
Tale of the Tape
32
Age
28
6' 6"
Height
6' 5"
81"
Reach
78"
265 lbs
Weight
260 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brazil
Country
N/A
86%
Win Rate
78%
67%
Finish Rate
83%
Striking
2.7
Sig. Strikes / Min
10.05
61%
Strike Accuracy
51%
51%
Strike Defense
50%
2.03
Absorbed / Min
6.64
Grappling
0
Takedowns / 15 Min
0
0%
TD Accuracy
0%
100%
TD Defense
100%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionLean
Guilherme Pat
by KO/TKO, Round 1
53.2% to win over Steven Asplund · 48.1% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
53.2%(-114)
46.8%(+114)
Guilherme PatSteven Asplund
KO/TKO
48.1%
25.6% / 22.5%
Submission
13.3%
7.1% / 6.2%
Decision
38.5%
20.5% / 18.0%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.16 rounds
Goes the Distance
39%
Ends Inside Distance
61%
Ends by KO/TKO
48%
Ends by Submission
13%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 65%Under 35%
31ppO/U 2.5
Over 51%Under 49%
1ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld, or build a custom comparison.