Main EventTitle FightWelterweight5 rounds
Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev
Title fight preview for UFC 330 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC 3302026-08-15
Main EventWelterweight5 rounds
Ian Machado Garry
17-1-0Underdog+250
OctagonIQ
Welterweight
Title Bout · 5 Rounds
28Age34
6' 3"Height5' 10"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
74"Reach70"
Islam Makhachev
28-1-0RussiaFavorite-310
Tale of the Tape
28
Age
34
6' 3"
Height
5' 10"
74"
Reach
70"
170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
N/A
Country
Russia
94%
Win Rate
97%
44%
Finish Rate
64%
Striking
4.78
Sig. Strikes / Min
2.45
54%
Strike Accuracy
58%
52%
Strike Defense
61%
2.86
Absorbed / Min
1.45
Grappling
0.92
Takedowns / 15 Min
3.1
31%
TD Accuracy
56%
80%
TD Defense
91%
0.4
Submissions / 15 Min
1
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Islam Makhachev
by Decision
62.4% to win over Ian Machado Garry · 46.8% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
⚡ Strong ValueOctagonIQ Model vs MarketUnderdog Value
Model gives Ian Machado Garry 37.6% to win; market implies 27.4%. Even though the model still has Ian Machado Garry as the underdog outright, the line over-prices Islam Makhachev — making Ian Machado Garry the +EV side at +250 or better.
37.6%(+166)
62.4%(-166)
Ian Machado GarryIslam Makhachev
KO/TKO
24.4%
9.2% / 15.2%
Submission
28.7%
10.8% / 17.9%
Decision
46.8%
17.6% / 29.2%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 3.60 rounds
Goes the Distance
47%
Ends Inside Distance
53%
Ends by KO/TKO
24%
Ends by Submission
29%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 83%Under 17%
66ppO/U 2.5
Over 69%Under 31%
37ppO/U 3.5
Over 58%Under 42%
15ppO/U 4.5
Over 50%Under 50%
1ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC 330, or build a custom comparison.