Light Heavyweight3 rounds
Jan Blachowicz vs Navajo Stirling
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez in Belgrade, Vojvodina, Serbia. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez2026-08-01
Light Heavyweight3 rounds
Jan Blachowicz
29-11-2PolandUnderdog
OctagonIQ
Light Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
43Age28
6' 2"Height6' 4"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
78"Reach79"
Navajo Stirling
10-0-0New ZealandFavorite
Tale of the Tape
43
Age
28
6' 2"
Height
6' 4"
78"
Reach
79"
205 lbs
Weight
205 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Poland
Country
New Zealand
73%
Win Rate
100%
72%
Finish Rate
56%
Striking
3.55
Sig. Strikes / Min
6.24
50%
Strike Accuracy
54%
52%
Strike Defense
58%
3.14
Absorbed / Min
2.62
Grappling
0.98
Takedowns / 15 Min
0.86
48%
TD Accuracy
26%
69%
TD Defense
71%
0.4
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Navajo Stirling
by Decision
74.9% to win over Jan Blachowicz · 50.1% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
25.1%(+298)
74.9%(-298)
Jan BlachowiczNavajo Stirling
KO/TKO
35.4%
8.9% / 26.5%
Submission
14.5%
3.6% / 10.9%
Decision
50.1%
12.6% / 37.5%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.42 rounds
Goes the Distance
50%
Ends Inside Distance
50%
Ends by KO/TKO
35%
Ends by Submission
15%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 79%Under 21%
58ppO/U 2.5
Over 63%Under 37%
26ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez, or build a custom comparison.