Welterweight3 rounds
Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai
Fight preview for UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry2026-08-15
Welterweight3 rounds
Jeremiah Wells
13-4-1Underdog
OctagonIQ
Welterweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
39Age28
5' 9"Height5' 10"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
74"Reach74"
M
Myktybek Orolbai
16-2-1Favorite
Tale of the Tape
39
Age
28
5' 9"
Height
5' 10"
74"
Reach
74"
170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
76%
Win Rate
89%
75%
Finish Rate
81%
Striking
2.35
Sig. Strikes / Min
2.78
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
48%
Strike Defense
51%
1.28
Absorbed / Min
2.7
Grappling
3.06
Takedowns / 15 Min
8.77
46%
TD Accuracy
59%
50%
TD Defense
40%
1.3
Submissions / 15 Min
0.5
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Myktybek Orolbai
by Decision
72.6% to win over Jeremiah Wells · 46.4% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
27.4%(+265)
72.6%(-265)
Jeremiah WellsMyktybek Orolbai
KO/TKO
17.6%
4.8% / 12.8%
Submission
36.0%
9.9% / 26.1%
Decision
46.4%
12.7% / 33.7%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.42 rounds
Goes the Distance
46%
Ends Inside Distance
54%
Ends by KO/TKO
18%
Ends by Submission
36%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 80%Under 20%
60ppO/U 2.5
Over 62%Under 39%
23ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, or build a custom comparison.