Bantamweight3 rounds
Josias Musasa vs Mark Vologdin
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez in Belgrade, Vojvodina, Serbia. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez2026-08-01
Bantamweight3 rounds
Josias Musasa
8-2-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Bantamweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
27Age26
5' 8"Height5' 3"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
74"Reach65"
Mark Vologdin
12-4-2RussiaFavorite
Tale of the Tape
27
Age
26
5' 8"
Height
5' 3"
74"
Reach
65"
135 lbs
Weight
135 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
Russia
80%
Win Rate
75%
88%
Finish Rate
83%
Striking
3.19
Sig. Strikes / Min
6.93
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
36%
Strike Defense
40%
4.39
Absorbed / Min
10
Grappling
0.9
Takedowns / 15 Min
0.5
50%
TD Accuracy
14%
81%
TD Defense
57%
0.5
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Josias Musasa
by Decision
65.3% to win over Mark Vologdin · 59.0% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
65.3%(-188)
34.7%(+188)
Josias MusasaMark Vologdin
KO/TKO
21.3%
13.9% / 7.4%
Submission
19.8%
12.9% / 6.9%
Decision
59.0%
38.5% / 20.5%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.47 rounds
Goes the Distance
59%
Ends Inside Distance
41%
Ends by KO/TKO
21%
Ends by Submission
20%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 79%Under 21%
59ppO/U 2.5
Over 68%Under 32%
36ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez, or build a custom comparison.