Heavyweight3 rounds
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues in Sacramento, California, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues2026-08-22
Heavyweight3 rounds
K
Kennedy Nzechukwu
14-6-1Underdog
OctagonIQ
Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
34Age36
6' 5"Height6' 4"
236 lbsWeight265 lbs
83"Reach78"
Shamil Gaziev
14-3-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
34
Age
36
6' 5"
Height
6' 4"
83"
Reach
78"
236 lbs
Weight
265 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
70%
Win Rate
82%
83%
Finish Rate
83%
Striking
4.96
Sig. Strikes / Min
2.94
46%
Strike Accuracy
46%
51%
Strike Defense
45%
4.58
Absorbed / Min
4.92
Grappling
0.5
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.06
45%
TD Accuracy
33%
80%
TD Defense
83%
0.2
Submissions / 15 Min
0.3
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Kennedy Nzechukwu
by KO/TKO, Round 1
68.3% to win over Shamil Gaziev · 58.7% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
68.3%(-215)
31.7%(+215)
Kennedy NzechukwuShamil Gaziev
KO/TKO
58.7%
40.1% / 18.6%
Submission
16.8%
11.5% / 5.3%
Decision
24.4%
16.7% / 7.7%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 1.97 rounds
Goes the Distance
24%
Ends Inside Distance
76%
Ends by KO/TKO
59%
Ends by Submission
17%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 58%Under 42%
15ppO/U 2.5
Over 39%Under 61%
-21ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, or build a custom comparison.