Flyweight3 rounds
Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song in Shanghai, China. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song2026-08-29
Flyweight3 rounds
Kevin Borjas
11-5-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Flyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
28Age24
5' 5"Height5' 6"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
68"Reach68"
Rei Tsuruya
11-1-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
28
Age
24
5' 5"
Height
5' 6"
68"
Reach
68"
125 lbs
Weight
125 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
69%
Win Rate
92%
73%
Finish Rate
88%
Striking
3.87
Sig. Strikes / Min
2.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
53%
50%
Strike Defense
43%
5.27
Absorbed / Min
1.91
Grappling
0
Takedowns / 15 Min
5.03
0%
TD Accuracy
37%
72%
TD Defense
50%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
2
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Rei Tsuruya
by Decision
68.3% to win over Kevin Borjas · 57.4% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
31.7%(+215)
68.3%(-215)
Kevin BorjasRei Tsuruya
KO/TKO
17.0%
5.4% / 11.6%
Submission
25.6%
8.1% / 17.5%
Decision
57.4%
18.2% / 39.2%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.45 rounds
Goes the Distance
57%
Ends Inside Distance
43%
Ends by KO/TKO
17%
Ends by Submission
26%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 79%Under 22%
57ppO/U 2.5
Over 67%Under 33%
34ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, or build a custom comparison.