JUL 25UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree JrSat, Jul 25, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Main EventLight Heavyweight5 rounds

Khalil Rountree Jr. vs Magomed Ankalaev

Main event preview for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.

IQ Score

Khalil Rountree Jr.
58
Prospect
Magomed Ankalaev
75
Contender
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr2026-07-25
Main EventLight Heavyweight5 rounds
Khalil Rountree Jr. — UFC fighter portrait
Khalil Rountree Jr.
15-7-0Underdog+250
OctagonIQ
Light Heavyweight
Main Event Bout · 5 Rounds
36Age34
6' 1"Height6' 3"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
76"Reach75"
Magomed Ankalaev — UFC fighter portrait
Magomed Ankalaev
21-2-1RussiaFavorite-310

Tale of the Tape

36
Age
34
6' 1"
Height
6' 3"
76"
Reach
75"
205 lbs
Weight
205 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
Russia
68%
Win Rate
91%
71%
Finish Rate
50%

Striking

3.88
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.65
40%
Strike Accuracy
52%
49%
Strike Defense
56%
4.33
Absorbed / Min
2.59

Grappling

0
Takedowns / 15 Min
0.79
0%
TD Accuracy
22%
58%
TD Defense
87%
0.1
Submissions / 15 Min
0
0

Simulation Prediction

OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Magomed Ankalaev
by Decision
65.6% to win over Khalil Rountree Jr. · 47.3% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
⚡ Value DetectedOctagonIQ Model vs MarketUnderdog Value
Value Side
Khalil Rountree Jr.
over Magomed Ankalaev
+7.0
Pp Value
Market Price
+250
Model fair price: +191
Model gives Khalil Rountree Jr. 34.4% to win; market implies 27.4%. Even though the model still has Khalil Rountree Jr. as the underdog outright, the line over-prices Magomed Ankalaev — making Khalil Rountree Jr. the +EV side at +250 or better.
34.4%(+191)
65.6%(-191)
Khalil Rountree Jr.Magomed Ankalaev
KO/TKO
45.3%
15.6% / 29.7%
Submission
7.3%
2.5% / 4.8%
Decision
47.3%
16.3% / 31.0%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 3.59 rounds
Goes the Distance
47%
Ends Inside Distance
53%
Ends by KO/TKO
45%
Ends by Submission
7%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 82%Under 18%
64pp
O/U 2.5
Over 68%Under 32%
36pp
O/U 3.5
Over 58%Under 42%
15pp
O/U 4.5
Over 51%Under 49%
1pp
Multi-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.

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