Lightweight3 rounds
Kyle Prepolec vs Mateusz Rebecki
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez in Belgrade, Vojvodina, Serbia. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez2026-08-01
Lightweight3 rounds
Kyle Prepolec
18-10-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Lightweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
36Age33
5' 10"Height5' 7"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
70"Reach66"
Mateusz Rebecki
20-5-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
36
Age
33
5' 10"
Height
5' 7"
70"
Reach
66"
155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
N/A
Country
N/A
64%
Win Rate
80%
82%
Finish Rate
78%
Striking
3.25
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.79
34%
Strike Accuracy
46%
48%
Strike Defense
54%
5.69
Absorbed / Min
4.36
Grappling
0
Takedowns / 15 Min
3.05
0%
TD Accuracy
48%
45%
TD Defense
53%
0
Submissions / 15 Min
0.4
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Mateusz Rebecki
by Decision
68.2% to win over Kyle Prepolec · 58.8% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
31.8%(+214)
68.2%(-214)
Kyle PrepolecMateusz Rebecki
KO/TKO
22.3%
7.1% / 15.2%
Submission
18.9%
6.0% / 12.9%
Decision
58.8%
18.7% / 40.1%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.44 rounds
Goes the Distance
59%
Ends Inside Distance
41%
Ends by KO/TKO
22%
Ends by Submission
19%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 77%Under 23%
54ppO/U 2.5
Over 67%Under 33%
34ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez, or build a custom comparison.