Heavyweight3 rounds
Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night in Paris, Ile-de-France, France. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night2026-09-05
Heavyweight3 rounds
Mario Pinto
12-0-0PortugalFavorite
OctagonIQ
Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
28Age34
6' 5"Height6' 5"
265 lbsWeight205 lbs
79"Reach79"
Ryan Spann
24-11-0USAUnderdog
Tale of the Tape
28
Age
34
6' 5"
Height
6' 5"
79"
Reach
79"
265 lbs
Weight
205 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Portugal
Country
USA
100%
Win Rate
69%
64%
Finish Rate
85%
Striking
2.85
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.11
69%
Strike Accuracy
39%
58%
Strike Defense
43%
1.93
Absorbed / Min
3.92
Grappling
2.38
Takedowns / 15 Min
1.21
26%
TD Accuracy
34%
100%
TD Defense
59%
0.9
Submissions / 15 Min
1.7
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Mario Pinto
by KO/TKO, Round 1
63.5% to win over Ryan Spann · 51.2% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
63.5%(-174)
36.5%(+174)
Mario PintoRyan Spann
KO/TKO
51.2%
32.5% / 18.7%
Submission
23.6%
15.0% / 8.6%
Decision
25.3%
16.1% / 9.2%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.10 rounds
Goes the Distance
25%
Ends Inside Distance
75%
Ends by KO/TKO
51%
Ends by Submission
24%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 67%Under 33%
33ppO/U 2.5
Over 44%Under 56%
-12ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
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