Main EventLightweight5 rounds
Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld
Main event preview for UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld2026-08-08
Main EventLightweight5 rounds
Mateusz Gamrot
26-4-0PolandUnderdog
OctagonIQ
Lightweight
Main Event Bout · 5 Rounds
35Age26
5' 10"Height6' 0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
70"Reach75"
Quillan Salkilld
12-1-0AustraliaFavorite
Tale of the Tape
35
Age
26
5' 10"
Height
6' 0"
70"
Reach
75"
155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poland
Country
Australia
87%
Win Rate
92%
57%
Finish Rate
78%
Striking
3.21
Sig. Strikes / Min
5.01
51%
Strike Accuracy
57%
60%
Strike Defense
45%
2.81
Absorbed / Min
3.03
Grappling
5.22
Takedowns / 15 Min
7.25
38%
TD Accuracy
35%
83%
TD Defense
80%
0.2
Submissions / 15 Min
0.8
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Quillan Salkilld
by Decision
70.9% to win over Mateusz Gamrot · 47.7% chance of this exact outcome
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29.1%(+244)
70.9%(-244)
Mateusz GamrotQuillan Salkilld
KO/TKO
26.5%
7.7% / 18.8%
Submission
25.7%
7.5% / 18.2%
Decision
47.7%
13.9% / 33.8%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 3.50 rounds
Goes the Distance
48%
Ends Inside Distance
52%
Ends by KO/TKO
27%
Ends by Submission
26%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 77%Under 23%
55ppO/U 2.5
Over 66%Under 35%
31ppO/U 3.5
Over 57%Under 43%
13ppO/U 4.5
Over 51%Under 49%
1ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld, or build a custom comparison.