JUL 25UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree JrSat, Jul 25, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Full card →Lightweight3 rounds
Mike Davis vs Nurullo Aliev
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr2026-07-25
Lightweight3 rounds
M
Mike Davis
12-3-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Lightweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
33Age25
6' 0"Height5' 10"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
72"Reach72"
N
Nurullo Aliev
11-0-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
33
Age
25
6' 0"
Height
5' 10"
72"
Reach
72"
155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
80%
Win Rate
100%
83%
Finish Rate
18%
Striking
4.73
Sig. Strikes / Min
2.72
53%
Strike Accuracy
44%
54%
Strike Defense
58%
5.23
Absorbed / Min
1.63
Grappling
2.4
Takedowns / 15 Min
2.12
44%
TD Accuracy
43%
60%
TD Defense
80%
0.8
Submissions / 15 Min
0.3
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Nurullo Aliev
by Decision
66.7% to win over Mike Davis · 56.3% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
33.3%(+200)
66.7%(-200)
Mike DavisNurullo Aliev
KO/TKO
19.8%
6.6% / 13.2%
Submission
24.0%
8.0% / 16.0%
Decision
56.3%
18.8% / 37.5%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.53 rounds
Goes the Distance
56%
Ends Inside Distance
44%
Ends by KO/TKO
20%
Ends by Submission
24%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 84%Under 16%
68ppO/U 2.5
Over 69%Under 31%
38ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
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