JUL 25UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree JrSat, Jul 25, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Full card →Welterweight3 rounds
Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr2026-07-25
Welterweight3 rounds
Sam Patterson
14-3-1EnglandUnderdog
OctagonIQ
Welterweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
30Age39
6' 3"Height6' 0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
78"Reach73"
Santiago Ponzinibbio
31-9-0ArgentinaFavorite
Tale of the Tape
30
Age
39
6' 3"
Height
6' 0"
78"
Reach
73"
170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
England
Country
Argentina
82%
Win Rate
80%
92%
Finish Rate
76%
Striking
2.62
Sig. Strikes / Min
4.78
37%
Strike Accuracy
41%
50%
Strike Defense
61%
3.06
Absorbed / Min
4.68
Grappling
0.82
Takedowns / 15 Min
0.6
50%
TD Accuracy
27%
33%
TD Defense
71%
1.6
Submissions / 15 Min
0
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionHigh
Sam Patterson
by Decision
65.5% to win over Santiago Ponzinibbio · 47.9% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
65.5%(-190)
34.5%(+190)
Sam PattersonSantiago Ponzinibbio
KO/TKO
37.2%
24.4% / 12.8%
Submission
14.8%
9.7% / 5.1%
Decision
47.9%
31.4% / 16.5%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.31 rounds
Goes the Distance
48%
Ends Inside Distance
52%
Ends by KO/TKO
37%
Ends by Submission
15%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 72%Under 28%
45ppO/U 2.5
Over 59%Under 41%
18ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
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