Heavyweight3 rounds
Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino
Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues in Sacramento, California, USA. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.
IQ Score
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues2026-08-22
Heavyweight3 rounds
S
Serghei Spivac
18-6-0Underdog
OctagonIQ
Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
31Age28
6' 3"Height6' 2"
260 lbsWeight225 lbs
78"Reach77"
V
Vitor Petrino
14-2-0Favorite
Tale of the Tape
31
Age
28
6' 3"
Height
6' 2"
78"
Reach
77"
260 lbs
Weight
225 lbs
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
N/A
Country
N/A
75%
Win Rate
88%
83%
Finish Rate
67%
Striking
3.57
Sig. Strikes / Min
3.24
47%
Strike Accuracy
48%
52%
Strike Defense
51%
4.23
Absorbed / Min
2.71
Grappling
3.82
Takedowns / 15 Min
2.6
59%
TD Accuracy
46%
63%
TD Defense
79%
0.5
Submissions / 15 Min
0.7
Simulation Prediction
OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionLean
Vitor Petrino
by Decision
58.1% to win over Serghei Spivac · 43.7% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
41.9%(+139)
58.1%(-139)
Serghei SpivacVitor Petrino
KO/TKO
37.7%
15.8% / 21.9%
Submission
18.6%
7.8% / 10.8%
Decision
43.7%
18.3% / 25.4%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.35 rounds
Goes the Distance
44%
Ends Inside Distance
56%
Ends by KO/TKO
38%
Ends by Submission
19%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 76%Under 24%
53ppO/U 2.5
Over 58%Under 42%
17ppMulti-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.
See the rest of the card on UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, or build a custom comparison.