TODAYUFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree JrSat, Jul 25, 2026 · Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
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Heavyweight3 rounds

Thomas Petersen vs Valter Walker

Fight preview for UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr in Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Tale of the tape, live sportsbook odds, and Monte Carlo simulation prediction.

IQ Score

Thomas Petersen
63
Gatekeeper
Valter Walker
76
Contender
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr2026-07-25
Heavyweight3 rounds
Thomas Petersen — UFC fighter portrait
Thomas Petersen
11-4-0USAUnderdog+210
OctagonIQ
Heavyweight
Bout · 3 Rounds
31Age28
6' 1"Height6' 6"
250 lbsWeight244 lbs
74"Reach78"
Valter Walker — UFC fighter portrait
Valter Walker
15-1-0Favorite-255

Tale of the Tape

31
Age
28
6' 1"
Height
6' 6"
74"
Reach
78"
250 lbs
Weight
244 lbs
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
USA
Country
N/A
73%
Win Rate
94%
25%
Finish Rate
71%

Striking

3.1
Sig. Strikes / Min
2
59%
Strike Accuracy
52%
54%
Strike Defense
42%
2.61
Absorbed / Min
2.85

Grappling

3.01
Takedowns / 15 Min
5.74
43%
TD Accuracy
69%
87%
TD Defense
0%
0.4
Submissions / 15 Min
2.5
0

Simulation Prediction

OctagonIQ Modelv3 · trained model
⬢ OctagonIQ PredictionLean
Valter Walker
by Decision
57.0% to win over Thomas Petersen · 45.8% chance of this exact outcome
Agree? Disagree? Share the prediction.
⚡ Strong ValueOctagonIQ Model vs MarketUnderdog Value
Value Side
Thomas Petersen
over Valter Walker
+12.0
Pp Value
Market Price
+210
Model fair price: +133
Model gives Thomas Petersen 43.0% to win; market implies 31.0%. Even though the model still has Thomas Petersen as the underdog outright, the line over-prices Valter Walker — making Thomas Petersen the +EV side at +210 or better.
43.0%(+133)
57.0%(-133)
Thomas PetersenValter Walker
KO/TKO
29.7%
12.8% / 16.9%
Submission
24.5%
10.5% / 14.0%
Decision
45.8%
19.7% / 26.1%
Prop Predictions
Avg fight length: 2.33 rounds
Goes the Distance
46%
Ends Inside Distance
54%
Ends by KO/TKO
30%
Ends by Submission
25%
Rounds Total Over/Under
O/U 1.5
Over 74%Under 26%
49pp
O/U 2.5
Over 59%Under 41%
17pp
Multi-factor model: effective striking, defense, grappling, matchup dynamics, momentum, finishing ability. For informational purposes only.

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